Photo Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin/US PRESSWIRE
Chris 52-16 (76.5%)
(C) Renan Barao vs. #4 T.J. Dillashaw:
T.J. Dillashaw gets better and better every fight and is one of the most athletic guys in the Bantamweight division, but Renan Barao is probably too much for him at this point in his career.
Barao hasn’t lost a fight since his MMA debut in April of 2005; and while I’m not counting Dillashaw out, I just don’t see him beating Barao on Saturday night.
For Dillashaw to win this fight he really needs to mix things up with his striking and wrestling to prevent Barao from adjusting to his style, which we have seen Barao do many times in the past. Dillashaw should also look to keep the striking exchanges in a close range being the smaller guy.
As for Barao, he should employ a similar strategy to his last fight against Urijah Faber. Barao needs to prevent the takedown and keep the fight at distance with a variety of strikes.
I’ve picked against Barao on many occasions and have been wrong, this time I’ll go with the champion.
Favorite: Barao (-825) Underdog: Dillashaw (+580)
My Pick: Barao
#4 Daniel Cormier vs. #6 Dan Henderson:
People are still riding on the hype of the Shogun knockout, and I get it, I really do; but this fight should be a wash in favor of Daniel Cormier.
While “Hendo” is still a very competent fighter, anything short of an H-Bomb will fail to win him this fight. “Hendo” just isn’t what he used to be, especially in the wrestling department, which is expected at 43 years old.
While Daniel Cormier is no spry chicken at age 35, he’s still early in his MMA career with 14 fights under his belt. We’ve seen Cormier in there with guys who have similar one-punch knockout power to Henderson in Roy Nelson, who Cormier defeated via unanimous decision.
Cormier could approach this fight in a similar manner to the Nelson fight where he landed from the outside and kept away from the power of Nelson, or he could look to take “Hendo” down and land from top position.
As long as Cormier doesn’t get in close with Henderson too much he should cruise to victory.
Favorite: Cormier (-900) Underdog: Henderson (+620)
My Pick: Cormier
#1 Robbie Lawler vs. #5 Jake Ellenberger:
This is the fight I’m personally looking forward to most. Robbie Lawler has been an absolute force since returning to the UFC last February, winning three straight over Josh Koscheck, Bobby Voelker and Rory MacDonald and most recently falling just short against Johny Hendricks in a fight for the UFC Welterweight championship.
Lawler has just been scary good, he’s a very dangerous and technical striker, picking up 18 of 22 victories via knockout, and his defensive wrestling has improved leaps and bounds, hell, even Hendricks had trouble taking him down.
On the other side of things, Ellenberger is easily just as dangerous on the feet as Lawler, winning 18 of 29 via knockout, and I would argue that Ellenberger is even more dangerous than Lawler in round one.
Ellenberger should look to be the aggressor in this fight, looking to land combos and force Lawler to fight moving backwards, which he hasn’t done much of. If Ellenberger throws combos instead of looking for the one-punch knockout it should also open up more opportunities for him to take the fight to the mat.
Lawler should implore a similar strategy to that of Rory MacDonald, in keeping Ellenberger at bay and landing with the jab and kicks.
However, I don’t see Lawler doing that, I see him looking to be the guy controlling where the fight goes, which could prove to be very dangerous against a guy like Ellenberger.
This one is a toss up, but I’ll go with the underdog.
Favorite: Lawler (-225) Underdog: Ellenberger (+189)
My Pick: Ellenberger
#6 Takeya Mizugaki vs. #10 Francisco Rivera:
This should be another fun fight. I see both guys coming out looking to strike. However, I don’t think that looking to wing heavy punches will work out too well for Mizugaki considering how open his striking is and how powerful his opponents punches are.
Mizugaki has a great chin, but he doesn’t have huge finishing power and going in there looking to throw with Francisco Rivera for all three rounds isn’t very smart.
If Mizugaki mixes things up and goes for the takedown I could see him winning, but that’s just not his style, Rivera will definitely hurt him in this one and possibly finish the fight.
Favorite: Mizugaki (-165) Underdog: Rivera (+140)
My Pick: Rivera
Jamie Varner vs. James Krause:
If Varner shows up to fight he’s a hard guy to beat, but if he doesn’t like he has in the past, he’s a very beatable guy. Varner has lost four of his nine losses via submission, which is a bit worrisome considering Krause has won 13 of his 20 victories via submission, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into that.
In his last fight Varner was decisively beating a very tough Abel Trujillo until suffering the very first knockout loss of his career. I see Varner starting where he left off in his fight with Trujillo, winning the grappling exchanges and grinding out a decision victory.
Favorite: Varner (-185) Underdog: Krause (+160)
My Pick: Varner
Preliminary Card:
Michael Chiesa (-125) > Francisco Trinaldo (+105)
Tony Ferguson (-300) > Katsunori Kikuno (+250)
Chris Holdsworth (-330) > Chico Camus (+270)
Al Iaquinta (-360) > Mitch Clarke (+295)
Anthony Njokuani (-235) vs. Vinc Pichel (+195)
Sam Sicilia (-145) > Aaron Phillips (+125)
David Michaud (-150) > Jingliang Li (+130)
*Odds Courtesy of BetDSI
Nuts Picks:
Matt 65-20 (76.5%)
Renan Barao (33-1, 1 NC) vs. TJ Dillashaw (9-2)
Daniel Cormier (14-0) vs. Dan Henderson (30-11)
Robbie Lawler (22-10, 1 NC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7)
Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2) vs. Francisco Rivera (10-2)
Jamie Varner (21-9-1, 2 NC) vs. James Krause (20-5)
Michael Chiesa (10-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (14-3)
Tony Ferguson (14-3) vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2)
Chris Holdsworth (5-0) vs. Chico Camus (14-4)
Al Iaquinta (8-2-1) vs. Mitch Clarke (10-2)
Anthony Njokuani (16-7, 1 NC) vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1)
Sam Sicilia (12-4) vs. Aaron Phillips (5-0)
David Michaud (7-0) vs. Li Jingliang (8-2)
Ingo 55-30 (64.7%)
Renan Barao (33-1, 1 NC) vs. TJ Dillashaw (9-2)
Daniel Cormier (14-0) vs. Dan Henderson (30-11)
Robbie Lawler (22-10, 1 NC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7)
Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2) vs. Francisco Rivera (10-2)
Jamie Varner (21-9-1, 2 NC) vs. James Krause (20-5)
Michael Chiesa (10-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (14-3)
Tony Ferguson (14-3) vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2)
Chris Holdsworth (5-0) vs. Chico Camus (14-4)
Al Iaquinta (8-2-1) vs. Mitch Clarke (10-2)
Anthony Njokuani (16-7, 1 NC) vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1)
Sam Sicilia (12-4) vs. Aaron Phillips (5-0)
David Michaud (7-0) vs. Li Jingliang (8-2)
Magic 8 Ball 49-36 (57.6%)
Renan Barao (33-1, 1 NC) vs. TJ Dillashaw (9-2)
Daniel Cormier (14-0) vs. Dan Henderson (30-11)
Robbie Lawler (22-10, 1 NC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7)
Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2) vs. Francisco Rivera (10-2)
Jamie Varner (21-9-1, 2 NC) vs. James Krause (20-5)
Michael Chiesa (10-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (14-3)
Tony Ferguson (14-3) vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2)
Chris Holdsworth (5-0) vs. Chico Camus (14-4)
Al Iaquinta (8-2-1) vs. Mitch Clarke (10-2)
Anthony Njokuani (16-7, 1 NC) vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1)
Sam Sicilia (12-4) vs. Aaron Phillips (5-0)
David Michaud (7-0) vs. Li Jingliang (8-2)