Chris 45-13 (77.6%)
(C) Jon Jones vs. #2 Glover Teixeira:
Glover Teixeira has the knockout power to finish anyone in the Light Heavyweight division and is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, but I just don’t see him being the man to defeat Jon Jones. Teixeira is riding a 20 fight win streak (5-0 UFC) which is ridiculously impressive, but his biggest wins have come over Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Ryan Bader.
Aside from the fact that Glover has yet to beat a top 10 Light Heavyweight, we’ve also seen him get rocked due to being overly aggressive by guys like Fabio Maldonado and Bader.
Jones should be able to use his sensational reach to keep Teixeira on the outside to prevent him from landing that big punch and use his wrestling to control when the fight goes to the ground.
If Teixeira tries to swing his way in against a guy as good as Jones things won’t go well for him and his night could be over quickly.
Favorite: Jones (-500) Underdog: Teixeira (+390)
My Pick: Jones
#4 Phil Davis vs. #14 Anthony Johnson:
Phil Davis may not be the most entertaining fighter, but he does fight very intelligently. Davis simply doesn’t get hit, he keeps a safe range to keep his opponent from landing any truly significant strikes; Davis only absorbs 1.16 strikes per minute, which is the fourth least in UFC history according to FightMetric. Davis’ use of range also benefits his game because it tends to frustrate his opponents and leads to Davis landing takedowns.
I would implore Davis to continue on with this game plan against Johnson due to the fact that Johnson is such a devastating striker and has won 69 percent of his fights via knockout.
The only way I see Johnson defeating Davis is if he goads Davis into striking with him early; if this fight goes past the first round I see Davis using his wrestling to wear out Johnson on his way to a unanimous decision, or a possible submission victory.
Favorite: Davis (-245) Underdog: Johnson (+205)
My Pick: Davis
#5 Luke Rockhold vs. #13 Tim Boetsch:
In my opinion Tim Boetsch should have lost to both Hector Lombard and C.B. Dollaway and could easily be riding a four fight losing streak right now. I believe he will be outclassed by Luke Rockhold tonight, but the one path to victory I see for Boetsch is to keep Rockhold in the clinch against the cage, work his dirty boxing and outmuscle Rockhold.
As for Rockhold, I could see him winning this fight in multiple ways, but the most prevalent would be Rockhold pouring it on early using his diverse striking to put Boetsch away early.
Favorite: Rockhold (-950) Underdog: Boetsch (+645)
My Pick: Rockhold
#9 Jim Miller vs. Yancy Medeiros:
Jim Miller was originally scheduled to take on 14th ranked Lightweight Bobby Green at UFC 172, however Green fell out due to injury and in stepped unranked Yancy Medeiros. Medeiros was also originally booked to fight at UFC 172, by welcoming Joe Ellenberger to the UFC ranks.
Medeiros is a good striker, but honestly I believe Miller completely outclasses him. Miller should look to take advantage of Medeiros’ grappling and just look to take him down and submit him early, which is exactly what I see happening.
Favorite: Miller (-175) Underdog: Medeiros (+150)
My Pick: Miller
Andre Fili vs. Max Holloway:
Fili and Holloway are both pretty similar guys, both young guys, who are tall for the weight class and are primarily strikers. Fili is the more dangerous striker and has a three and a half inch reach advantage over Holloway.
Holloway usually likes to use his jab and reach advantage to frustrate his usually smaller opposition, but he won’t be able to do that with Fili.
I see Fili putting his dynamic skill set on display in this one, mixing things up with his striking and grappling to take an impressive victory over Holloway.
Favorite: Fili (-155) Underdog: Holloway (+135)
My Pick: Fili
Preliminary Card:
#2 Joseph Benavidez (-410) > #8 Tim Elliot (+330)
Takanori Gomi (-175) vs. Issac Vallie-Flagg (+150)
#12 Bethe Correia (-110) < #14 Jessamyn Duke (-110)
Danny Castillo (-320) > Charlie Brenneman (+265)
Chris Beal (-135) > Patrick Williams (+115)
*Odds Courtesy of BetDSI
Nuts Picks:
Matt 55-19 (74.3%)
Jon Jones (19-1) vs. Glover Teixeira (22-2)
Phil Davis (12-1, 1 NC) vs. Anthony Johnson (16-4)
Luke Rockhold (11-2) vs. Tim Boetsch (17-6)
Jim Miller (23-4, 1 NC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (10-1)
Max Holloway (8-3) vs. Andre Fili (13-1)
Joseph Benavidez (19-4) vs. Tim Elliot (10-4-1)
Takanori Gomi (34-9, 1 NC) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-4-1)
Jessamyn Duke (3-0) vs. Bethe Correia (7-0)
Danny Castillo (16-6) vs. Charlie Brenneman (19-6)
Chris Beal (8-0) vs. Patrick Williams (7-3)
Ingo 50-24 (67.6%)
Jon Jones (19-1) vs. Glover Teixeira (22-2)
Phil Davis (12-1, 1 NC) vs. Anthony Johnson (16-4)
Luke Rockhold (11-2) vs. Tim Boetsch (17-6)
Jim Miller (23-4, 1 NC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (10-1)
Max Holloway (8-3) vs. Andre Fili (13-1)
Joseph Benavidez (19-4) vs. Tim Elliot (10-4-1)
Takanori Gomi (34-9, 1 NC) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-4-1)
Jessamyn Duke (3-0) vs. Bethe Correia (7-0)
Danny Castillo (16-6) vs. Charlie Brenneman (19-6)
Chris Beal (8-0) vs. Patrick Williams (7-3)
Magic 8 Ball 41-33 (55.4%)
Jon Jones (19-1) vs. Glover Teixeira (22-2)
Phil Davis (12-1, 1 NC) vs. Anthony Johnson (16-4)
Luke Rockhold (11-2) vs. Tim Boetsch (17-6)
Jim Miller (23-4, 1 NC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (10-1)
Max Holloway (8-3) vs. Andre Fili (13-1)
Joseph Benavidez (19-4) vs. Tim Elliot (10-4-1)
Takanori Gomi (34-9, 1 NC) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-4-1)
Jessamyn Duke (3-0) vs. Bethe Correia (7-0)
Danny Castillo (16-6) vs. Charlie Brenneman (19-6)
Chris Beal (8-0) vs. Patrick Williams (7-3)