UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida Predictions

Image Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea | USA TODAY Sports

Chris 68-34 (66.7%)

(C) Chris Weidman vs. #3 Lyoto Machida:

Coming into this fight we still have some unanswered questions about the champion. We’ve seen Weidman do great things, he’s beaten Anderson Silva twice, that in itself should say enough about him, but we still haven’t seen his full skill-set. We also have yet to see Weidman in the championship rounds, does he have the gas tank to go hard for 25 minutes?

What we do know about Weidman is that he’s an impeccable wrestler with great offensive Jiu-Jistu and solid striking. The only real weaknesses we’ve seen out of Weidman is that he’s not the quickest guy on the feet and he also fails to set up his takedowns with strikes at times, but being that he’s such a good wrestler he usually finds the takedown regardless of that.

The biggest question is will Machida be able to defend against Weidman’s shot? If he can, we could see Weidman face some adversity here. Machida has done exceptionally well against wrestlers, he defends their takedowns in open space and is constantly moving, fighting from range; this causes his opponents to rush in to either strike or take Machida down, which gives Machida the opening he needs to land.

If Weidman can’t get the takedown in open space he needs to use his striking to close the distance and find the takedown from the inside, or he can try to corner Machida against the cage and look to take advantage from there.

Machida needs to stick to his guns and take Weidman’s wrestling out of the equation he could come out on top.

This could go many ways, but I feel more confident in Weidman.

Favorite: Weidman (-185)  Underdog: Machida (+160)

My Pick: Weidman

 

(C) Ronda Rousey vs. #2 Alexis Davis:

Alexis Davis has good striking, but we all she truly shines in Jiu-Jitsu, as she is a black belt. Most have looked to go after Rousey on the feet, but have been unable to keep her on the outside to avoid being thrown. Davis may want to execute a different strategy and look to take Rousey down or even pull guard on her. Since going for the takedown may provide Rousey with opportunities to counter with throws, pulling guard may be the safer of the two options. However, if Davis takes risks and looks for the takedowns her Jiu-Jitsu is good enough where she can defend off of her back if she happens to get countered, and if she does get the takedown Davis should look to throw heavy strikes from the top and look for submissions from there.

But let’s not be fooled, taking Ronda Rousey down and defending against her top game are no easy tasks for any woman, including Alexis Davis.

Rousey’s best tactic in this one is to clinch with Davis, I believe she is physically stronger and shows better technique and positioning in the clinch.  If Rousey is able to secure the clinch she will be able to control where the fight takes place, she can keep it on the feet and do what she did to Sara McMann, or she could look to throw Davis from there.

All in all, Rousey is simply ahead of her competition and they’re not catching up with her anytime soon. I’m not sure as to when and how Rousey will win, but I am fairly confident that she’ll come out on top.

Favorite: Rousey (-950)  Underdog: Davis (+650)

My Pick: Rousey

 

#12 Stefan Struve vs. Matt Mitrione:

Although it’s obvious Struve has the better overall skill-set, this one is a toss up. Struve hasn’t competed in just over 16 months due to heart complications, which could result in some serious ring rust. Aside from that, Struve is a monstrous seven feet tall and holds an 84.5 inch reach, but fails to use his jab to keep his opponents at range. If Struve started using his reach more effectively, he could potentially be a top five Heavyweight. The biggest problem with Struve’s failure to use his reach is that he becomes prone to getting clipped by smaller opponents, with five of his six losses coming via knockout or TKO, that’s extremely dangerous.

Nevertheless, Struve is the far better fighter and should be able to get Mitrione to the ground and finish this fight.

Favorite: Struve (-165)  Underdog: Mitrione (+140)

My Pick: Struve

 

Uriah Hall vs. Thiago Santos:

I don’t know much about Santos, but I do know he’s a well-rounded, aggressive fighter. In order to get the victory tomorrow night he needs to mix up his striking and grappling, this can cause Hall to over-think and be tentative, which we have seen from him in the past.

On the other hand, Hall just needs to show up. If the same Uriah Hall shows up that retired Chris Leben, I could see him finishing the fight quickly. Hall is an excellent striker with great timing and precision, the “pushing the pace” style of offense Santos has will work in Hall’s favor.

Hall’s devastating counter striking and movement should lead him to victory.

Favorite: Hall (-460)  Underdog: Santos (+365)

My Pick: Hall

 

Marcus Brimage vs. Russell Doane:

This one is a tough call. Doane is probably the better grapper, especially when it comes to attacking for submissions, but Brimage should be able to secure the takedown and keep top control while avoiding Doane’s submissions. I think where Brimage has an advantage is on the feet, it may be in his best interest to keep it standing, using his boxing to pick Doane apart.

Favorite: Doane (-115)  Underdog: Brimage (-105)

My Pick: Brimage

 

Preliminary Card:

Urijah Faber (-800) > Alex Caceres (+575)
Ildemar Alcantara (-135) >Kenny Robertson (+115)
Chris Camozzi (-235) > Bruno Santos (+195)
George Roop (-200) > Rob Font (+170)
Guilherme Vasconcelos (-170) > Luke Zachrich (+145)
William “Bubba” Bush (-175) < Kevin Casey (+150)

*Odds Courtesy of BetDSI

 

Nuts Picks:

Matt 78-30 (72.2%)
Chris Weidman (11-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4)
Ronda Rousey (9-0) vs. Alexis Davis (16-5)
Stefan Struve (25-6) vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3)
Uriah Hall (8-4) vs. Thiago Marreta (9-2)
Marcus Brimage (6-2) vs. Russell Doane (13-3)
Urijah Faber (30-7) vs. Alex Caceres (10-5)
Kenny Robertson (13-3) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (20-6)
Chris Camozzi (19-7) vs. Bruno Santos (13-1)
George Roop (15-10-1) vs. Rob Font (10-1)
Luke Zachrich (13-3) vs. Guilherme Vasconcelos (3-1)
Kevin Casey (5-3) vs. Bubba Bush (8-2)

Ingo 68-40 (63%)
Chris Weidman (11-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4)
Ronda Rousey (9-0) vs. Alexis Davis (16-5)
Stefan Struve (25-6) vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3)
Uriah Hall (8-4) vs. Thiago Marreta (9-2)
Marcus Brimage (6-2) vs. Russell Doane (13-3)
Urijah Faber (30-7) vs. Alex Caceres (10-5)
Kenny Robertson (13-3) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (20-6)
Chris Camozzi (19-7) vs. Bruno Santos (13-1)
George Roop (15-10-1) vs. Rob Font (10-1)
Luke Zachrich (13-3) vs. Guilherme Vasconcelos (3-1)
Kevin Casey (5-3) vs. Bubba Bush (8-2)

Magic 8 Ball 60-48 (55.6%)
Chris Weidman (11-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4)
Ronda Rousey (9-0) vs. Alexis Davis (16-5)
Stefan Struve (25-6) vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3)
Uriah Hall (8-4) vs. Thiago Marreta (9-2)
Marcus Brimage (6-2) vs. Russell Doane (13-3)
Urijah Faber (30-7) vs. Alex Caceres (10-5)
Kenny Robertson (13-3) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (20-6)
Chris Camozzi (19-7) vs. Bruno Santos (13-1)
George Roop (15-10-1) vs. Rob Font (10-1)
Luke Zachrich (13-3) vs. Guilherme Vasconcelos (3-1)
Kevin Casey (5-3) vs. Bubba Bush (8-2)