UFC on FOX 11: Werdum vs. Browne Predictions

Chris 33-12 (73.3%)

#2 Fabricio Werdum vs. #3 Travis Browne:

This is easily one of the toughest fights for me to pick thus far in 2014. These two men pretty much have polar opposite styles, so anything can happen.

Considering their opposite styles, range and positioning should dictate this fight. The key for Werdum is to close the distance and work from the inside looking to utilize his clinch as well as looking to pull guard to work for submissions off his back. Werdum needs to avoid shooting takedowns near the cage at all costs, as Browne has devastating elbows, and has never been taken down in his UFC career.

For Browne, the game plan should be to keep Werdum at a distance and use his reach advantage to work his striking, especially his kicks. Browne should also look to avoid grappling exchanges with Werdum, if he is forced into one he should get it to the cage in order to prevent the takedown, as well as preventing Werdum from pulling guard.

Werdum has only lost two of his past 10, with the two losses coming against Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem and is currently riding a three fight win streak.

Browne is also on a three fight win streak and his only loss came against Antonio Silva, in a fight where he tore his hamstring. The only fight we really saw Browne tested in was a draw against Cheick Kongo which took place nearly four years ago and Browne is a much different fighter now.

Since I’m still unsure who to pick based on the matchup in the cage, their records, and the fact that neither man has gone past the third round, i’ll go Werdum based on experience.

Favorite: Browne (-220)  Underdog: Werdum (+180)

My Pick: Werdum

 

#3 Miesha Tate vs. #7 Liz Carmouche:

Liz Carmouche is one of the toughest female fighters in the UFC, and has a capable skill-set in all realms of mixed martial arts, but Miesha Tate should win this fight.

I feel that Tate is just a bit better than Carmouche in all aspects. When the fight is standing I see Tate winning the exchanges and if she is able to find the takedown I can see her getting a late submission.

Carmouche would be wise to force Tate into a brawl and look for the takedown herself to work her heavy ground and pound, that’s the only way I see her getting a win over Tate.

Favorite: Tate (-205)  Underdog: Carmouche (+175)

My Pick: Tate

 

#8 Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone vs. #11 Edson Barboza:

This one has ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it. These guys are two of the best strikers in the Lightweight division and could definitely put on a striking clinic, which I’m sure fans would love, but I don’t see happening.

While there is sure to be some fun exchanges in this one, I see Cerrone pursuing the takedown and using ground strikes to set up submissions. While Cerrone could definitely strike with Barboza it would be wise to turn this into a grappling match where he holds the advantage.

If the best Donald Cerrone shows up he’s nearly unbeatable, but if he comes in as anything less Barboza could take advantage of that.

Barboza needs to defend the takedown and keep this fight standing where he may have a slight advantage.

Another thing to look into is that Barboza won’t have the huge height and reach advantage here that he normally enjoys, so he may not have the luxury of keeping a safe distance.

This one should be fun, but I just think Cerrone has more tools to win this fight.

Favorite: Barboza (-130)  Underdog: Cerrone (+110)

My Pick: Cerrone

 

#13 Brad Tavares vs. #14 Yoel Romero:

This is another fight that’s really interesting. Yoel Romero could be considered the best wrestler competing in MMA, but has had trouble putting his wrestling to use in MMA both offensively and defensively in the UFC at least.

In his three UFC bouts Romero is zero for six in takedown attempts and has successfully defended only 55 percent of his opponents takedowns. However, he has been a very powerful and dynamic striker, winning all seven of his pro MMA career by knockout or TKO.

Tavares, on the other hand, is on a five fight win streak with all five wins coming via decision. Tavares likes to keep the fight standing by utilizing his takedown defense and winning the striking exchanges against his opponents.

While that strategy has worked against some game opponents, I don’t see it working against Romero, he’s just too explosive, if you keep it standing with him you’ll eventually wind up on your back, looking at the lights and asking ‘what happened?’

Romero will either have to end this fight quickly, or find takedowns to win this fight; if Tavares is able to survive the early power of Romero, he could definitely win the striking exchanges and take home a decision.

Favorite: Tavares (-125)  Underdog: Romero (+105)

My Pick: Romero

 

Preliminary Card:

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-280) > Rafael dos Anjos (+230)
Thiago Alves (-415) > Seth Baczynski (+330)
Jorge Masvidal (-235) < Pat Healy (+195)
Estevan Payan (-145) < Alex White (+125)
Caio Magalhaes (-265) >Luke Zachrich (+220)
Jordan Mein (-400) >Hernani Perpetuo (+320)
Dustin Ortiz (-245) > Ray Borg (+205)
Mirsad Bektic (-125) > Chas Skelly (+105)
Derrick Lewis (-320) > Jack May (+265)

*Odds Courtesy of BetDSI

 

Nuts Picks:

Matt 46-15 (75.4%)
Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) vs. Travis Browne (16-1-1)
Miesha Tate (13-5) vs. Liz Carmouche (9-4)
Donald Cerrone (22-6, 1 NC) vs. Edson Barboza (13-1)
Brad Tavares (12-1) vs. Yoel Romero (7-1)
Rafael dos Anjos (20-6) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (21-0)
Thiago Alves (19-9) vs. Seth Baczynski (19-10)
Jorge Masvidal (25-8) vs. Pat Healy (31-17, 1 NC)
Estevan Payan (14-5, 1 NC) vs. Alex White (9-0)
Caio Magalhaes (7-1) vs. Luke Zachrich (13-2)
Jordan Mein (27-9) vs. Hernani Perpetuo (17-3, 1 NC)
Dustin Ortiz (12-3) vs. Ray Borg (6-0)
Mirsad Bektic (7-0) vs. Chas Skelly (11-0)
Derrick Lewis (9-2, 1 NC) vs. Jack May (7-0)

Ingo 43-18 (70.4%)
Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) vs. Travis Browne (16-1-1)
Miesha Tate (13-5) vs. Liz Carmouche (9-4)
Donald Cerrone (22-6, 1 NC) vs. Edson Barboza (13-1)
Brad Tavares (12-1) vs. Yoel Romero (7-1)
Rafael dos Anjos (20-6) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (21-0)
Thiago Alves (19-9) vs. Seth Baczynski (19-10)
Jorge Masvidal (25-8) vs. Pat Healy (31-17, 1 NC)
Estevan Payan (14-5, 1 NC) vs. Alex White (9-0)
Caio Magalhaes (7-1) vs. Luke Zachrich (13-2)
Jordan Mein (27-9) vs. Hernani Perpetuo (17-3, 1 NC)
Dustin Ortiz (12-3) vs. Ray Borg (6-0)
Mirsad Bektic (7-0) vs. Chas Skelly (11-0)
Derrick Lewis (9-2, 1 NC) vs. Jack May (7-0)

Magic 8 Ball 35-26 (57.4%)
Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) vs. Travis Browne (16-1-1)
Miesha Tate (13-5) vs. Liz Carmouche (9-4)
Donald Cerrone (22-6, 1 NC) vs. Edson Barboza (13-1)
Brad Tavares (12-1) vs. Yoel Romero (7-1)
Rafael dos Anjos (20-6) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (21-0)
Thiago Alves (19-9) vs. Seth Baczynski (19-10)
Jorge Masvidal (25-8) vs. Pat Healy (31-17, 1 NC)
Estevan Payan (14-5, 1 NC) vs. Alex White (9-0)
Caio Magalhaes (7-1) vs. Luke Zachrich (13-2)
Jordan Mein (27-9) vs. Hernani Perpetuo (17-3, 1 NC)
Dustin Ortiz (12-3) vs. Ray Borg (6-0)
Mirsad Bektic (7-0) vs. Chas Skelly (11-0)
Derrick Lewis (9-2, 1 NC) vs. Jack May (7-0)